Apparently, it would be ridiculous to propound that US would try to create hurdles in Indo-Pak trade:for years, the US has been pushing both countries to have smooth relations. One of the calculations on the part of the US has always been that a Pakistani military relieved from the eastern borders can combat Taliban and Al Qaeda more effectively. But it seems the US is so disappointed, that it has given up any hope of Pakistan military cleansing the Haqqani network etc. Therefore, the US has no interest in ending of Indo-Pak tensions: on the contrary, the US is more interested in isolating Pakistan like Iran.
It seemed surprising when a few days before President Zardari’s meeting with Dr. Manmohan Singh, the US declared head money on Hafiz Saeed. And, now when the Indo-Pak bilateral trade is becoming more of a reality, US Secretary of the State, Hillary Clinton, had no appreciative words for improving relations between two foes. Furthermore, she emphasized the divisive issue of Hafiz Saeed that has been symbolizing the enmity between India and Pakistan.
Pakistan kept on refusing to improve its relations with India despite prodding by the US. However, as the Pak-US relations moved towards deadlock and Pakistan started fearing US-NATO sanctions, it suddenly granted India the Most Favored Nation status. In doing so, Pakistan was looking for alternatives if its trade with the US and NATO experienced setback. For long, Pakistani industrialists and investors have been demanding to open trade with India but the military-dictated foreign and commerce policy did not concede. However, now Indo-Pak trade is given a chance by the military just to minimize possible impact of US sanctions.
It is obvious that the Americans are very bitter about Pakistan. Behind the scene, the President, Congress and Senate shares the perception that Pakistan is an enemy country that hid Osama for years and is now providing sanctuaries to US arch enemies like the Haqqani Network and other such entities. Pakistan’s demand for ceasing drone attacks is also percieved as an attempt to give cover to the Taliban, rather than any issue of sovereignty.
By stopping NATO supplies, Pakistan has eliminated the main American interest in the country. After all, the US and NATO was not keeping good relations with Pakistan because they needed wheat or rice from them: it was the critical passage that Pakistan provided for US-NATO supplies. If Pakistan prohibits US-NATO to use the supply route what other interest they have in the country?Instead, they will conceive Pakistan as an enemy country causing them trouble and possible defeat in Afghanistan.
If one looks backs for a year or so, one can detect that the US stopped considering Pakistan as a friend and, hence, they have been looking for subtle ways to teach her a lesson. This is the core reason that the US did not apologize over the Salasa incident and asserted their right to continue drone attacks. And, now by disinviting Pakistan to the Chicago conference on Afghanistan, the US and NATO has pushed Pakistan out of the final decision making process. It is also a declaration that Pakistan is no more taken to be a friendly country to say the least. If such anti-Pakistan conjecturing has some basis then what harm can US and NATO cause Pakistan?
It will be ridiculous to envisage a US-NATO attack on Pakistani military installations at this stage. However, they can conceive of Iran-like sanctions on Pakistan if the deadlock continues. The US would be tempted to impose sanctions on Pakistan because of its ties with Iran and their expanding commerce to lessen the impact of Western sanction (on Iran). With similar objectives, US and NATO will like to hinder Indo-Pak trade. If NATO supplies are not allowed to be resumed in the next few days, the US and NATO will openly start pressing India to not expand trade with Pakistan.
It does not mean that India will automatically oblige the US-NATO on Pakistani trade: India has some maneuvering space in such conditions. But it is for sure that Indian demands from Pakistan will increase and Hafiz Saeed may be offered as a sacrificial lamb, in one way or another. Granting MFN status to India will not be enough for Pakistan to wriggle out of US-NATO sanctions.
